Problem

In the US, we are moving backwards on addressing the primary root cause of climate change: CO2 emissions. After a fairly steady decline between 2007 and 2020, emissions levels began to level off. Furthermore, while we should be rapidly cutting emissions in order to keep global warming to lower than 2ºC, the UN-established ceiling to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, US CO2 emissions are projected to have risen by 2.4% in 2025.

Long-term projections are difficult, but the outlook does not look good. While the most recent official projections are unanimous in projecting downward trends, they do not take into account the Trump Administration’s slashing of clean energy projects and regulatory support for the fossil fuel industry. Even these projections do not come close to meeting the US emissions reductions targets of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 50% relative to 1990 levels by 2030, and by 60+% by 2035.

Solution

In order to effectively address the primary root cause of climate change in the US, we need to mandate emissions reductions across the country. The only way to ensure that emissions fall is to implement emissions reductions mandates, and design government agencies which effectively enforce these mandates. Governments exist to protect the public interest, and it is most definitely in the public interest to ensure that the worst impacts of climate change are avoided.

Strategy

However, our federal and state governments—the only governments with the authority to materially impact CO2 emissions in the US—are not sufficiently beholden to the public interest to effectively implement or enforce emissions reductions mandates. This is a separate issue, with separate root causes, but the point is that waiting for our governments to take action on this issue is not an option.

Thankfully, there is another way.

In 23 states, US citizens can take matters into their own hands by placing a constitutional amendment or statute directly onto the ballot, and voting for it themselves in the following election. This strategy came into existence thanks to Progressive Era reformers who sought a check on Gilded Age political corruption, and has been used to change the political and economic systems of US states in numerous consequential ways, many of which went on to be adopted by the federal government (including women’s suffrage, bans on child labor, & the 8-hour workday). It is time now to use this tool to address the environmental market failure at the root of our economic system.

Timeline

It is urgent that we pass the only policy that is guaranteed to reduce US CO2 emissions in as many states as possible as soon as possible. The next time that we have a real chance at passing this policy via ballot initiative is in the 2028 elections, which gives us about two years to launch campaigns in a handful of states. Currently, we are planning to launch the first round of campaigns in a subset of the following states: Wyoming, the Dakotas, and Montana.

The first steps of a successful ballot initiative campaign are policy design, economic impact scoring, and viability polling. We are already working on the former two steps, but in order to conduct viability polling in our target states, we need to raise about $75,000. We are looking to raise that amount by June of 2026, to begin a robust regional poll in July of 2026. There are already some favorable polling numbers on this issue broadly, but more information is needed. Some examples of previous polling are below.

Learn More

Carbon Cashback on the Ballot Summary.pdf

Carbon Cashback on the Ballot Presentation.pdf

Carbon Cashback on the Ballot Expert Sign-On Letter.pdf